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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
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The bulk of the work revolved around compiling and codifying the technical information in one place, Eberwein said. There were some existing Technical Standards, but other requirements lived in the state’s Minimum Internal Control Standards, which are a broad mix of technical and procedural requirements.
The goal is to make it easier for licencees to find technical information in one definitive source rather searching across multiple libraries. Most of the explanatory notes in the revisions refer to adaptations from MICS and other sources. This process has been years in the making, Eberwein said, with work stopping and starting at various points.
“We had various iterations of the drafts internally probably going back at least a decade, and just never made it to the finish line for various reasons,” he explained.
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“In other countries, such systems detect the time taken, every bet placed, how is the game played and thus help to curb addiction,” Mmolotsi said.
Kgatleng Central MP Mpho Morolong also said gambling should be understood as entertainment rather than a route to financial security.
“Gambling should be taught as entertainment rather than a way to make money,” Morolong said.