Monopoly Money Line

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The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”

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The report utilised various methods to estimate the size and scale of Europe’s black market, including web traffic, digital marketing, macros data and regulations in place across the 28 markets surveyed.

Helios, a specialist consultant in gambling web traffic, analysed the number of black market websites actively marketing across the 28 markets included in the report, between March and May.

This data was cross referenced with SimilarWeb traffic analysis to confirm the scale of activity. In some markets, the number of illegal sites being actively marketed was much higher than those that have local licences to operate.

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In April, Interactive Games LLC, a unit of Cantor, sued DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment’s FanDuel, alleging the two largest domestic online sportsbook operators infringed on its patents. That suit arrived a decade after Interactive Games brought similar litigation against the sports wagering giants, which was challenged by both companies.

In the suit brought earlier this year, the Cantor unit accuses the two gaming companies of infringing on five of its patents and requested an undisclosed amount of financial damages.

Interactive Games was once a part of Cantor Gaming, which no longer operates. That entity was familiar with controversy, enduring allegations of money laundering and nearly losing its Nevada license in 2018. The parent company sold the business in 2019.