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“I’m trying to address every stage: prevention, support for people who are already struggling, and then action against the illegal sites.”

He does not believe illegal gambling can simply be eliminated. But he believes it can be made harder to operate. That may be the more realistic role for companies such as Trace2Trace as the illegal market evolves: not replacing regulators or enforcement agencies, but providing the intelligence needed to see beyond the individual URL. For Madsen, the motivation remains deeply personal: “I know very well what gambling addiction can do to people.”

The emergence of his company along with a string of others reflects a growing need in the industry: as illegal operators become more adept at moving, cloning and disguising their online presence, enforcement may increasingly depend on understanding the deep workings of the networks behind the screen.

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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The offences relate to special betting markets that let customers wager on the exact date of the general election.

The then-prime minister, Rishi Sunak, announced 4 July 2024 as the election date on 22 May 2024. However, internal planning for that date had already begun at 10 Downing Street and Conservative Campaign Headquarters before the announcement.

Anthony Lee’s senior campaigning role gave him access to confidential discussions about the election timing. Rather than keeping that information confidential, he placed bets and passed it to his wife. She then used the information to place her own bets.