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“MGM offers a more diversified investment case, with BetMGM, regional gaming and Las Vegas operations reducing reliance on online sports betting alone,” says Beynon. Robinson makes the same point. “It is a Las Vegas and Macau property business with a betting JV attached, and that is precisely why it has held up.”

Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.

The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.

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“We have made progress, such as increasing the direct tax to 15% and including the activity in the Selective Tax. Those benefiting from social programmes and those who joined the Desenrola programme were also prohibited from betting.”

He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.

“The debate about prohibition will remain open in the country for the next few years,” he said. “It will be an institutional debate between the Supreme Court, Congress and the executive branch.

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Polymarket also has marketing deals with Major League Baseball (MLB), Major League Soccer (MLS), the NHL and UFC.

While the Polymarket/Yahoo Finance situation is one of the earliest examples of a severed relationship between a prediction market operator and a media entity, that doesn’t mean those “divorces” will permeate the two industries.

There’s widespread belief that old guard media companies are incentivized to feature event contract data on their sites or reference it in select publications as a way of better connecting with younger readers and viewers.