Video Game Evolution: Merge it

What is Video Game Evolution: Merge it?

The rejection of the Clarity Act can be viewed as a victory for gaming stakeholders in their fight against prediction markets, which are closely intertwined with the crypto world. Crypto markets have long been the second-largest category of prediction market trading, behind sports, and many crypto exchanges also now offer predictions. These include Crypto.com, Coinbase, Gemini and many others.

On 16 June, a coalition of gaming lobby groups, state associations and labour unions sent a letter to the Senate urging lawmakers to include language in the bill banning sports and casino-related contracts. Among the signatories were the American Gaming Association, the Indian Gaming Association, the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers and the UNITE HERE unions.

“Litigation may eventually clarify the law, but this is ultimately a question of congressional intent. Congress should not wait while this nationwide expansion of gambling continues,” the letter said. “It should use crypto legislation to reaffirm a simple principle: sports betting falls outside the CFTC’s remit and cannot be offered through prediction market platforms.”

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The decision to use a provisional measure means the restrictions can take effect immediately, less than a month before the elections. This is the clearest indication yet that the sector is being used for electoral purposes to try and secure Lula’s re-election.

The drafting of the text is reportedly in the hands of the Civil House, with some believing that it serves an electoral purpose, meaning Lula potentially riding the wave of criticism against the sector.

The Brazil betting industry has faced increasing scrutiny of late over claims that families are falling into debt because of gambling.

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However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms. 

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026.