Mustang Trail

How to play Mustang Trail

While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.

Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.

That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.  

How to play Mustang Trail

The contrast with land-based gambling is striking. Casinos in Morocco and Egypt operate within recognised frameworks and, in Morocco, attract international investment. Private online betting remains outside the legal market.

The scale of that unlicensed market is unclear. MDJS’ own estimate of about MAD3.5 billion a year is the only figure available. No comparable public estimate exists for Tunisia or Egypt.

Without a licensing route, these markets remain difficult to measure, tax or supervise. Blocking and criminalisation may disrupt operators, but they do not remove demand. Governments are left trying to suppress offshore betting rather than bring it within a regulated market.

About Mustang Trail

Researchers conducted a rapid desk review of 53 relevant sources, three deliberative focus groups segmented by gambling product type (sports betting, online casino/slots and land-based gambling) and four in-depth interviews with people identified as being at higher risk of harm (Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) score of 8 or more). 

A total of 22 participants were purposely recruited to provide detailed insights.

Participants broadly accepted the principle that gambling information should be transparent and accessible, but many reported difficulty interpreting or using it effectively in practice.